All political parties are exerting their best efforts to achieve success in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, to be held in two phases on 6th and 11th November 2025 for 243 seats. The NDA is contesting on the ruling side, while the Grand Alliance is contesting on the opposition side. On the NDA side, JDU is contesting on 101 seats, BJP on 101, LJP on 29, HAM on 6, and RLM on 6 seats. On the Grand Alliance side, RJD is contesting on 143 seats, Congress on 60, VIP on 15, CPI (ML) on 20, CPI on 6, and CPM on 4 seats. Friendly contests are also underway in some constituencies within the Grand Alliance.
After much hesitation, the Grand Alliance has declared Tejashwi Yadav as its Chief Ministerial candidate. On the other hand, the BJP is claiming that the alliance is contesting this election under the leadership of CM Nitish Kumar, but they have not formally announced that Nitishji will be the Chief Minister after the election. However, leaders of parties like JDU, HAM, and RLM are continuously propagating that "Nitishji was the Chief Minister, is the Chief Minister, and will remain the Chief Minister."
Of the three major political parties in Bihar, broadly Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Koeri), extremely backward and Mahadalit are termed as core voters of Janata Dal (United), Muslim-Yadav as core voters of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and upper castes as the core voters of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
A closer analysis of the 2015 and 2020 elections reveals that in 2015, JDU transferred major share of its core voters to its ally RJD; but RJD, in turn, did not transfer its major share of core votes to JDU. As a result, JDU won only 71 seats as against RJD's 80 seats.
This situation continued in year 2020 as well , when the JDU transferred major share of its core vote to the BJP, but the BJP's core voters betrayed JDU. Nitish fell victim to a BJP conspiracy, and to diminish his stature, the BJP's core voters openly supported the Chirag Paswan-led LJP on the seats where JDU candidates were contesting. Senior BJP officials entered the electoral fray against the JDU on LJP ticket, and the entire local BJP units openly worked against the JDU. As a result, the BJP won 74 seats despite contesting fewer seats, while the JDU was reduced to just 43 seats. The LJP, relying on BJP leaders and their core voters, become the main factor for defeat of JDU on approximately 38 seats.
The 2025 electoral power struggle appears to be returning to its old patterns. Nitish has once again become victim of a conspiracy, the first example of which is that BJP succeeded in providing 29 seats to LJP instead of the 20-22 (as planned), and fielded its own candidates/office bearers on 10 seats of the LJP. In reality, the BJP is contesting not on 101 seats but 111 seats, and the LJP on only 19 seats.
Nitish Kumar's stature is further diminishing in the game plan laid out by Home Minister Amit Shah, considered as the BJP's Chanakya.
While JDU maintained social balance by giving 22 tickets to BJP's core voter groups, the BJP completely neglected Nitish's core voters, giving 50 percent of the tickets to the upper castes, who constitute only 10 percent of the total population.
The BJP, which secures a majority of Kurmi votes, displayed its social ill will by providing only 2-3 seats to this community, while giving 16 seats to Bhumihars, 21 to Rajputs, 11 to Brahmins, and 1 to Kayasths i.e. a total of 49 tickets to upper castes and only 10 seats to the extremely backward classes, which constitute 36 percent of the population.
BJP strategists are trying behind the scenes to weaken Nitish Kumar to such an extent that his rise becomes impossible.
The liquor mafia and Prashant Kishore appear to be indirectly complicit in this conspiracy. If the JDU fails to devise an alternative strategy in its constituencies in the electoral battle, unlike in year 2020, while ignoring the core voters of its ally BJP, its fate is likely to be even more worse.
According to analysts, Nitish's weakening could prove fatal on two levels.
If power slips from Nitish Kumar's hands to the BJP, it will severely undermine the interests of vulnerable sections of society and minorities. On the other hand, if the RJD comes to power, the lives of communities other than the Muslim-Yadav group will become difficult, and leads to a recurrence of jungle raj.
In the current situation, it seems essential for the JDU to strengthen, while not only the RJD but also the BJP, to weaken. It remains to be seen how JDU become alert against the conspiracy of BJP, and how the people of Bihar use their valuable votes in the election.
The author is an academician and engineer. |
