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| Exit Polls Turned Exact Polls | | | Omkar Dattatray | 11/18/2025 10:55:54 PM |
| Different poll stars and exit channels were busy with the poll prediction and forecasts from the evening of 11th November when the second phase of the Bihar Assembly polls came to end. One thing is characteristic of the exit polls which are mere predictions and thus it has been seen that at times there was no truth and correctness in the poll predictions and forecasts. One this very unique with the current exit polls is that there seems more or less unanimity about the outcome of the Bihar polls as all R channels and poll stars predicted comfortable win to the NDA-JD[U].But the tall claims of grand alliance including RJD-Congress combine seem not to hold water and so for as the exit polls are concerned there seems no truth in the claims of Mahagathbandhan. It seems that the RJD-Congress alliance will have again to sit in the opposition and RJD leader Tajeswhi Ydav though ranks first choice for majority of people has a good ranking for the chief ministers post but still he cannot be the chief minister this time as well and so for as the exit polls are concerned Nitish Kumar will again be crowned the king of Bihar as he will be the chief minister. The exit polls have unanimously forecasted clear swing for the NDA in Bihar elections, dashing all hopes of the grand alliance and Tejiswhi Yadan and now it will be seen which way the political wind will blow.11 Exit polls give NDA clear majority in Bihar and 1 predicts close contest. Throwing up a close contest, in sharp to all other exit polls so far, Axis My India has predicted that the ruling NDA may even fall short of the majority mark in the Bihar polls. While Axis My India has predicted that NDA will win between 121 and 140 seats, CNX has given the ruling alliance 150-170.The majority mark in the Bihar Assembly is 122 seats. Throwing a close contest, in sharp contrast to all other exit polls so far, Axis My India predicted that the ruling NDA may even fall short of the majority mark in Bihar. The pollster has projected that NDA will win between 121to 140 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 98-118 and poll strategist -turned politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party will end up between Zero and two. The majority mark in the 243 -member Bihar Assembly is 122,and the lower end of Axis My India’s prediction for the NDA puts it at one below that .On the other end, the upper end of 118 for the grand alliance, which has the RJD and Congress as the main constituents, will put it within touching distance of the majority. The most, worrying numbers for the NDA, however will be the vote share prediction. The pollster has projected that ruling alliance will get 43% Of votes and Mahagathbandhan will get 41—a difference of only two percentage points. Every other pollster has given NDA a clear majority even on the lower end, with vote Vibe predicting the lowest figure of 125.The most optimistic CNX ,has predicted a lower end of 150 for the NDA and an upper end of 170 ,which would be higher than the two -third majority mark .NDTV’s poll of Exit Polls ,which is an aggregate ,suggests the NDA will win 146 seats ,the Mahagathbandhan 92 and Jan Surraj Party will end up with a solitary MLA. Health warning Exit Poll often gets it wrong. Two other pollsters ,Vote Vibe and CNX ,released their figures on Wednesday ,and both predicted a clear majority for the NDA. Voter Vibe projected that NDA will win between 125 and 145 seats, the grand alliance 95-115and the Jan Suraaj Party zero to two. CNX went a step further and predicted 150-170 seats for the NDA ,70-90 for grand alliance and 0.2 for Jan Suraaj. The actual poll results show that the majority of exit polls are correct and as NDA is getting more than two third majority with 190 seats going to the kitty of NDA and the BJP has clearly gained in this election as BJP is going to win more than 80 seats and it is very significant for the BJP and JD[U] 75.In all the poll projections made by various pollsters have come true and all the claims of RJD and its top leader Tajeswhi Yadav prove false and all his hopes of coming to power and there being a vote for change has come to naught. The ally of RJD, Congress has only been able to get only five seats. RJD had to contend with only 37 seats proving all its claims false. By and large, all exit polls proved correct and right as all most all exit polls had predicted majority for NDA camp.
People of Bihar have trusted the policies of Modi-Nitish duo and have voted for development, peace and prosperity. Women &youth of Bihar have voted for the NDA and they put their approval on the commitments of NDA and its leaders. Your voted for the NDA because it promised to reduced migration of youth-Biharis to other states for jobs. They voted for NDA for their promise of employment to the youth of Bihar.
Moreover, the people of Bihar voted for not giving a chance to Jungle raj which is lawlessness for which Lalu-Rabri rule is infamous. Small allies of NDA like JSP[RV] and HUM have improved their past performance. To sum up it can be said, that exit polls proved exact polls as all projections and forecasts that is exit polls turned right and so it can be said with certainty that exit polls this time as well proved exact polls and that is all that one can say.
The author is a columnist, social, KP activist &Freelancer |
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