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| ‘New Delhi is not capable of putting up a credible defence’ | | |
EARLY TIMES REPORT
JAMMU, May 24: A renowned defense analyst of India, Sudhi Ranjan Sen has said Kashmir is going to witness a hot summer. According to him, the situation in Kashmir was reminiscent of 1990 when militancy was at its peak. Ranjan discussed involvement of Pakistan in aiding and abetting terrorism and also the options available with New Delhi. The analysis appeared on NDTV website recently and must have forced the concerned to do some serious thinking.
Sen goes to the extent of doubting the capability of New Delhi of putting up a `credible defence'.
"According to estimates of the state police and security agencies, there are at least 2,000 terrorists of whom around 400 are already in launch pads across the border waiting to be pushed in. The situation is somewhat similar to the mid 90s or early 2000s. It is said to be forewarned is to be forearmed."
Unveiling Kashmir's ` international connection' Sen said: "The USA is looking for a "Good Taliban" to chart out an honourable exit from Afghanistan. The Pakistan army will be at the centre of such an effort. In the 80s it was used to run a proxy battle against the Soviets. In 2000s it will be the proxy battle to keep the Mullahs from striking Europe and America."
This feeling, Sen believes, has emboldened Pakistan. "Pakistan army is already feeling victorious. And, it is increasingly becoming evident from Pakistani official statements on Jammu Kashmir, river water sharing with India and the manner which they are treating the 26/11 probe in Pakistan."
Sen believes India is without options at present. Having chocked track two initiatives with the `moderate Hurriyat' rather prematurely, the hardcore elements have gained ground. "New Delhi has no desire and, perhaps now, no capability to use covert executive action as a credible deterrence either against terror groups and their leaders or those in the establishment."
"India's options and more importantly its ability to rally the global community to put pressure on Pakistan also seems not only limited but in serious doubt. India has been largely kept out of the dialogue to decide on the future of Afghanistan despite having substantially contributed to process of rebuilding that country", Sen said.
Sen sees a conspiracy in keeping India out of Istanbul conference. And in the London Conference, India's position of not negotiating with the so-called "Better Taliban" was ignored. Instead, that very idea was accepted with the enthusiastic support of Islamabad.
As things stand, it is matter of time before a "Good Taliban" emerges from nowhere and negotiations begin with Islamabad at the centre. And, in all likelihood, the arrangement will be the same as the 80s and 90s. The US and Europe will provide material and moral support to Islamabad to play prefect.
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