Early Times Report
Jammu, Nov 10: The stage is set for two high-stakes byelections in Jammu and Kashmir, where polling in Nagrota (Jammu division) and Budgam (Kashmir division) on Tuesday will test the political pulse of the Union Territory and the strength of its leading parties—the ruling National Conference (NC), the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the revival-seeking Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Though the contests are confined to just two Assembly segments, their political significance far outweighs their scale. Both elections have become prestige battles for the region’s dominant parties—each viewing the results as a referendum on their leadership, organisational depth, and regional influence after the 2024 Assembly polls.
The Nagrota Assembly seat, a traditional BJP bastion in the Jammu region, fell vacant following the demise of senior leader Devender Singh Rana, who had won the seat in 2024 with an emphatic margin of over 30,000 votes, securing 48,113 votes against 17,641 polled by his nearest rival, Joginder Singh of the National Conference.
To retain the seat and preserve Rana’s legacy, the BJP has fielded Devyani Rana, daughter of the late leader. The party has gone all out to ensure a resounding victory, deploying its top brass—including Union Minister Jitendra Singh, MP Jugal Kishore Sharma, and senior organisational leaders—to campaign intensively across the constituency.
The campaign in Nagrota revolved around themes of development, continuity, and loyalty, with the BJP seeking to consolidate its traditional vote base while capitalising on sympathy for Devender Rana’s passing. The ruling party’s slogan in the area—“Nagrota ka vikas, BJP ke saath”—has been projected as a tribute to the late leader’s work.
The National Conference, however, has refused to concede defeat without a fight. The party has attempted to make inroads by raising local developmental issues and highlighting regional imbalance in governance, seeking to dent the BJP’s near-monopoly in the Jammu belt. The National Conference has fielded Shamim Begum for this seat. Former Minister and veteran politician Harsh Dev Singh is also in the fray as Panthers Party candidate.
In Budgam, the contest is equally crucial but for different reasons. The seat fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah resigned from one of his two constituencies, choosing to retain the other. In the 2024 elections, Omar had won Budgam decisively, polling 36,010 votes against 17,525 secured by Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of the PDP.
For the bypoll, the National Conference has fielded Aga Syed Mehmood, hoping to retain the seat and reaffirm its dominance in central Kashmir. The PDP, on the other hand, has once again placed its faith in Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, banking on his grassroots network and the strong religious following of the Aga family in Budgam.
With just three Assembly seats to its name after its worst-ever performance in 2024, the PDP is treating this bypoll as a potential turning point—an opportunity to re-establish its footing in the Valley’s political landscape. A victory in Budgam would not only boost the morale of its cadre but also reassert the party’s relevance in a post-Article 370 political order dominated by the NC and newly resurgent smaller regional players.
The NC, for its part, has left nothing to chance. Senior leaders, including Omar Abdullah, his advisor, Nasir Aslam Wani, and majority of the party MLAs have campaigned aggressively, portraying the bypoll as a vote of confidence in the government’s first year of performance.
While the Budgam contest will decide whether the National Conference can maintain its unchallenged supremacy in the Valley, the Nagrota bypoll is seen as a litmus test for the BJP’s continued dominance in the Jammu region.
For the BJP, retaining Nagrota with a strong margin would reaffirm its hold on Hindu-majority constituencies and demonstrate organisational strength in the post-Delimitation political geography. For the NC, victory in Budgam would consolidate its claim as the principal voice of the Valley.
However, the real story lies in whether the PDP can use Budgam to script its comeback. A credible performance—even short of victory—could re-energise the party’s base and project Mehbooba Mufti’s leadership as still relevant in the region’s fractured polity. |
