| Ticking time bomb: 5 glacial lakes threaten over 2,700 buildings, roads, key infrastructure | | | Early Times Report
Jammu, Mar 31: A looming environmental threat is quietly building up in the Kashmir Himalaya, with five glacial lakes flagged as “very high risk” for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), potentially putting thousands of lives and critical infrastructure in danger.
The Jammu and Kashmir government, in a disclosure on the floor of the Legislative Assembly in response to a query by National Conference MLA Tanvir Sadiq, revealed that Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal, and Bhagsar lakes have been categorised under the highest susceptibility bracket.
The warning is based on a recent scientific study by the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, published in the Journal of Glaciology, which analysed 155 glacial lakes across the region.
The scale of the potential disaster is alarming. According to the government, these five high-risk lakes together pose a threat to over 2,700 buildings, around 15 major bridges, a vast stretch of road network, and even a hydroelectric power plant.
The study used multiple hydrogeomorphic indicators—including lake expansion, dam stability, and surrounding terrain—to assess vulnerability. The findings placed a handful of lakes in the “very high susceptibility” category, raising serious concerns over downstream safety.
While the government sought to calm fears, it acknowledged the seriousness of the risk.
Officials clarified that “high susceptibility” does not mean an immediate breach or collapse. However, it signals that under certain triggering conditions—such as heavy rainfall, landslides, or glacial movement—these lakes could unleash sudden and devastating floods.
Experts caution that the real danger could be even greater due to lack of critical data. Accurate prediction of flood magnitude, speed, and warning time hinges on precise measurements of lake volume—data that is currently missing for most Himalayan glacial lakes.
Without detailed bathymetric (depth) surveys, risk assessment remains incomplete, leaving disaster preparedness with significant blind spots.
In response, researchers have stepped up efforts. The University of Kashmir has acquired a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat, funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, to conduct detailed lake surveys.
Bathymetric studies of vulnerable glacial lakes in the western Himalaya are planned for 2026, subject to logistical and security clearances.
Authorities said continuous monitoring of these lakes is underway using remote sensing and targeted field assessments. Plans are also being developed to install early-warning systems, prepare evacuation strategies for downstream populations, and integrate GLOF scenarios into district-level disaster management plans.
Scientists are working on advanced early-warning mechanisms tailored for mountainous terrain, combining satellite monitoring, field data, sensor-based hydrometeorological inputs, and real-time communication systems.
However, officials admitted that turning these scientific efforts into ground-level safety systems will require sustained funding, coordination, and institutional support.
As climate change accelerates glacial melting and instability in the Himalayas, experts warn that the threat of GLOFs is no longer distant—it is real, evolving, and demands urgent attention before it turns into a disaster. |
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