| How BJP cracked Bengal, held Assam, took Puducherry | | | Dr. Vinod Chandrashekhar Dixit
A BJP victory with a huge margin in West Bengal would mark a historic political realignment in a state long considered resistant to the party’s rise. BJP victories in West Bengal, Assam and the small territory of Puducherry signal a return to the strong political momentum claimed by the party before the 2024 general election, when it lost its outright majority in parliament. It signals more than just a change of government; it reflects deep voter discontent over governance, law and order, and economic stagnation after 15 years of TMC rule. The mandate shows that issues like corruption, political violence, unemployment, and demographic concerns resonated strongly enough to override traditional regional loyalties. For years, West Bengal was the great exception to Narendra Modi’s political advance. His Bharatiya Janata Party had swept through India’s Hindi-speaking heartland, expanded into the west and northeast, and overwhelmed once-formidable regional rivals. Yet Bengal — argumentative and steeped in a self-image of cultural exceptionalism — remained stubbornly resistant. That made this state election unusually consequential. With more than 100 million people, West Bengal’s electorate is larger than Germany’s, turning the contest into something closer to a nation choosing a government than a routine state poll. Nearly 68.2 million people voted — about 92.93 percent turnout — a record high for the state. Monday’s BJP victory, therefore, ranks among the most significant breakthroughs of Modi’s 12-year reign. It is not merely the defeat of a three-term incumbent but the completion of the party’s long march into eastern India.
Behind the BJP’s historic win lies the astute strategy of the party’s ‘Chanakya’, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who camped in Bengal for 14 days, coordinated operations, and micromanaged booth-level execution. The victory was driven by a mix of anti-incumbency, demographic shifts, and tactical campaigning. After 15 years of TMC rule, analysts point to a “strong undercurrent of grouse” against scams, syndicate raj, political violence, and unemployment as key factors eroding support. West Bengal recorded the highest number of political murders between 2011 and 2024, and low conviction rates for crimes against women became central campaign issues. The groundwork was visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP was already leading in 90 of 294 assembly segments, compared to just 77 seats won in 2021, with 28 TMC-held seats flipping to BJP leads. Districts like Purba Medinipur saw dramatic swings — BJP went from 7 of 16 seats in 2021 to leading 15 of 16 segments in 2024. Many contests were razor-thin: 46 TMC-led segments in 2024 had margins under 5%, and across 58 seats, a swing of just 1.92 lakh votes could change the balance of power. BJP’s campaign focused heavily on illegal immigration from Bangladesh, women’s safety, and the weak economy, with PM Modi and other top leaders campaigning for weeks on these issues. The recent electoral roll revision also reshaped the electorate, while a record 92.47% turnout and the deployment of 2.5 lakh central forces kept violence low, which the BJP argued enabled freer voting. Exit polls from Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, and Chanakya all projected the BJP crossing the 148-seat majority mark, with some forecasting a two-thirds majority. The win also reflects the breakdown of TMC’s once-formidable social coalition. For years, Mamata Banerjee held together women, Muslims, and large sections of the Hindu vote across rural and urban Bengal. This election saw cracks, with significant sections of women and OBC/SC Hindu voters shifting over safety and welfare delivery issues. BJP successfully contrasted central direct-benefit schemes like PM Awas, Ujjwala, and Ayushman Bharat against allegations of “cut money” and leakages in state-run welfare. A decade of RSS-BJP booth-building, plus the induction of strong TMC defectors like Suvendu Adhikari, gave the party local faces and the caste arithmetic it previously lacked. With Bengal’s educated youth facing job shortages and migration, BJP’s promise of a “double-engine sarkar” for industry and investment struck a chord. As author and journalist Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay rightly noted, “Winning Bengal is a big victory for the BJP — a land of promise that has long eluded its grasp.” Banerjee founded the TMC in 1998 after breaking with the Congress, disillusioned with its refusal to take on the Left Front that had ruled since 1977. For 15 years she ruled a state of more than 90 million people, even as the BJP grew from a marginal player to the main opposition.
Now, the challenge for the BJP shifts from winning to governing. A huge mandate brings huge expectations — on jobs, industry, women’s safety, and corruption. If delivered, Bengal could become the BJP’s eastern anchor. If not, the wheel of anti-incumbency turns fast. The verdict underlines a core truth of Indian democracy: no fortress is permanent. In West Bengal, the lease on power has changed hands. |
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