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| Fracas of exit polls - Alarming bells for BJP | | | Mahadeep Singh Jamwal | 12/8/2018 9:41:33 PM |
| The fracas of exit polls if transform to reality, the only melody left with the BJP will be the lines of lyrist Gopal Dass Niraj "Swapan jhare phool se, meet chubhe shul se, lut gaye shinghar sabhi baag ke babul se - aur hum khade-khade bahar dekhte rahe - karvan gujar gaya, guvar dekhte rahe". The assembly elections in five states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram ultimately concluded after high voltage controversial election campaign by BJP including PM and CM of UP. Yogi combine. Here it is important to keep in mind that the previous elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh ruled by BJP were held before Mr. Modi emerged on the national scene. Therefore the BJP capturing majority in these states in 2013 elections can in no way be taken as because of Modi effect. But the just concluded elections in these states are going to measure the veracity of Modi influence in these states and it will also be reflection of his much hyped image by media and his social media handlers. By the time election concluded in Rajasthan various news channels started buzzing with exit poll results. Collective inferences that can be drawn from the exit polls do not speak well of BJP performance in these states and are likely to see the tables turning. If at all these results turn out to be reality, it is clear indicator that much hyped false propaganda of development and 'sab ka sath sab ka vikas' and various welfare schemes of Modi Je have proved to be just like 'India Shining' slogan of 2004. Otherwise too the claim of BJP ruling 18 states is not a true reflection of the facts. Lie with a purpose is one of the worst kinds and the most profitable - Josh Billings. On the same lines BJP lie of its expansion and acceptance by the country men but the reality is far away than its claims. A ghost that haunts duo Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah day-night is their political ambition of remaining glued to the power seats. In the race after capturing power in the center in 2014, they are on propaganda mission well served in the public domain by pro-BJP media net work that BJP is on continuous spree of winning state elections. It is a myth created by BJP hawkish minds and kept alive by continuous propaganda. We well remember the 2014, won by BJP riding on horses of promises and commitments that later and till date are proving to be only lame ducks. A study of the presence of BJP in 18l states, tells a different story. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the Congress vote share was 19.3 per cent, getting the party its lowest ever tally at 44 MPs. For the BJP, which got a simple majority with 282 seats, the vote share was 31 per cent. So simple equations we can arrive at, 69 per cent voters of the country have rejected Modi as well as BJP in 2014 itself. Those with just 31 per cent vote share have dubbed the voice of 69 per cent voters, not a healthy sign for democracy. In 22 states elections were held after Modi assumed power. BJP only in six states was able to form government at its own, in 8 states it has to tailor alliance and support with other parties to capture power, and in 8 states BJP has to cut a sorry figure as people rejected this party and was able to win only on nominal seats. Let us glance into the Indian map indicating the position of BJP in various states to arrive at the false claim of BJP ruling 18 states and others in row to fall in BJP kitty.
The states where BJP obtained majority at its own are: 1. Haryana, elections held in October 2014. BJP just could win 47 of 90 seats almost equal to previously held with slight edge. 2. Uttrakhand, elections held in Feb 2017 and BJP got clear majority at its own by winning 57 of 70 seats. 3. Uttara Pradesh, elections held in March 2017 and BJP got 312 of 403 seats. 4. Gujarat, in home state of Modi and Shah, acid test was observed in just concluded elections in Dec 2017. BJP just saved its face at 99 seats of 182, losing 16 seats than previously held. 5. Himachal Pradesh, elections held in 2017 and BJP captured 44 seats of 68 seats. Here BJP cannot be credited being rotational change ever decided by voters of HP. 6. Tripura, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP got 36 of the 59 seats that went to poll.
The states where BJP failed to achieve majority at its own but succeeded in allying with state parties by adopting horse trading, trickeries and even by allying with pro-separatist party. 1. Maharashtra, elections held in October 2014. BJP got 122 seats of the 288 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government at its own and did so with alliance with Shiv Sena securing 63 seats. 2. Jammu and Kashmir, elections held in Nov-Dec 2014 that gave 25 seats of 87 to BJP and it architected alliance with PDP (a pro-separatist party) against which BJP has fought elections 3. Jharkhand, elections were held in Dec 2014. BJP got 37 of 82 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government, hence joined hands with regional parties to form the government. 4. Bihar, elections were held in 2015. The RJD win 80, JDU 71, and BJP win 53 seats. The initial government was formed by alliance of RJD and JDU but subsequently JDU dumped RJD and architected alliance with BJP. 5. Assam, elections held in 2016, but BJP could win only 60 seats of 126, means less than 50 per cent. 6. Goa, elections were held in 2017. BJP win 13 and Congress 17 of 40 seats, what BJP in trickery architected alliance with regional parties and form the government. 7. Meghalya, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP won just two and Congress 21 of the 60 seats. The regional party supported by BJP is in power there. 8. Arunachal Pradesh, The elections held in 2018 but witnessed turmoil, when in 60 member assembly, 43 MLAs winning on Congress tickets defected to BJP.
The eight states have not opened their doors for BJP and they are: 1. Delhi, elections held in 2015, BJP have just 3 of 70 assembly seats. 2. Tamil Nadu, elections held in May 2016 and BJP was returned with zero in 235 assembly seats. 3. West Bengal, elections held in 2016 and BJP scored just 3 out of 294 assembly seats. 4. Kerala, elections held in May 2016 and BJP scored just one out of 140 assembly seats. 5. Punjab, elections held in 2017 and BJP scored 43 out of 117 assembly seats. 6. Manipur, elections held in 2017, BJP win just 21 of 60 assembly seats. 7. Nagaland., elections held in 2018, BJP win 12 of 60 assembly seats. 8. Karnataka, Recently concluded elections in 2018, BJP captured 104 out of 222 seats.
More interesting explosion rarely spoken by BJP and less made public by media is that BJP is continuously losing by polls on seats vacated after party's massive victory in 2014 parliamentary elections. BJP just managed win in 5 of 26 Lok Sabha seats that went for by polls after Modi regime. The seat details where by polls held and BJP lost badly are; 1. Medak (Telangana) in September 2014. 2. Mainpuri in Mainpuri (UP) in September 2014. 3. Kandhmal (Odisha) in October 2014. 4. Warangal (Telangana) in Nov 2015. 5. Ratlam (MP) in Nov 2015. 6. Bangaon (WB) in 2015. 7. Coochbehar (WB) 2016. 8. Tamluka (WB) in 2016. 9. Tura (Meghalya) in 2016. 10. Amritsar (Pb) in 2017. 11. Srinagar (J&K) in 2017. 12. Mallapuram (Kerala) in 2017. 13. Gurdaspur (Pb) in 2017. 14. Ajmer (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 15. Alwar (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 16. Uluberia (WB) in Feb. 2018. 17. Phulpur (vacated by sitting Dy.CM of UP) in 2018. 18. Gorakhpur (vacated by sitting CM of UP) in 2018 19. Araria (Bihar) in March 2018. 20. Just recently in November 2018, the bye poll results in Karnataka gave a humiliating defeat to BJP when out of 3 parliamentary seats BJP could register its win only in Shivamogga Lok Sabha constituency and Congress-JDS alliance captured Ballari and Mandya parliamentary seats in addition to two assembly seats of Jamkhandi and Ramanagara assembly seats. The facts and figures enumerated above are enough to speak that BJP's spanning spectrum as is in much propagation is just a curved breeding.
Concluding it is an analysis that I place as mirror image of BJP's false propaganda of expansion after Modi regime. In my individual view BJP's claim of expansion is just a hoax to create a wrong impression among the voters to divert their attention towards BJP. We need to be careful and not to put the cart before the horse without application of our mind in 2019. |
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