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| Past indicates higher turnout benefits BJP; leaves NC, Cong combine far behind | | Doda-Udhampur Lok Sabha election | | Azad's reluctance not unwarranted
Syed Junaid Hashmi
JAMMU, Mar 15: If trends of last 47 years are any indication, electoral prospects of Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and PDP on Doda-Udhampur Parliamentary constituency depend largely on the voter-turnout.
If the turnout is above 60 percent, BJP is likely to have an edge over NC-Congress combine, which is still indecisive about its candidate from this constituency. Congress is living in the illusion of Dr. Jitendra Singh's being new candidate and having virtual disconnect with Doda-Udhampur Parliamentary constituency. They did heave a sigh of relief when BJP gave mandate to Sangrash Samiti man Dr. Jitendra Singh, leaving Dr. Nirmal Singh and his supporters in complete shock.
But communal polarisation coupled with urban centres preferring BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi is likely to give rude shock of Congress if they field comparatively weak candidate even against Dr. Jitendra Singh, whom they consider weak. Come what may, political calculations and history of Doda-Udhampur Lok Sabha seat does give edge to BJP if voting percentage shows sharp rise.
On Doda-Udhampur constituency, calculation do indicate that BJP is likely to have edge over NC-Congress combination in the Lok Sabha elections if the voters turn out in huge numbers in 17 Assembly segments which constitute this crucial Parliamentary seat. This is despite the fact that Congress-NC combination has highest number of MLAs i.e. 10 in this constituency. This includes 8 of Congress and 2 of NC.
Congress MLAs are from Inderwal, Doda, Bhaderwah, Ramban, Banihal, Gool-Arnas, Billawar and Chenani while two NC MLAs are from Kishtwar and Gulabgarh. BJP has four MLAs in Hiranagar, Bani, Basholi and Reasi. Udhampur and Ramnagar are with JKNPP while Kathua is represented by an independent MLA. However, 2009 Lok Sabha elections saw BJP leading in Doda, Ramban, Reasi, Udhampur, Bani, Basholi, Kathua, Billawar and Hiranagar.
The narrow win was attributed to Choudhary Lal Singh getting huge lead in Inderwal, Banihal, Gulabgarh and Gool-Arnas constituencies coupled with dismal voting percentage in Hindu heartland of Reasi, Kathua, Hiranagar, Udhampur, Basholi and Billawar. However, past trends have shown that high voting percentage has benefitted BJP in the Lok Sabha elections after 1996. Prior to this, higher voter turnout would ensure victory of Congress candidates after the elections on this Parliamentary seat were held for the first time in the year 1967. Late Brigadier Ghansara Singh was the first MP from Doda-Udhampur who polled 54.88 percent of the total votes.
This was followed by Congress winning the seat 5 times, thrice by Dr. Karan Singh, once each by Girdhari Lal Dogra and Dharm Paul. NC, which is partnering Congress for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, has always stood 3rd in the contest despite having sizeable cadre across the constituency. BJP gave close contest to Congress till the year 1996 when BJP leader Chaman Lal Gupta won the seat by a sizeable margin against ex-Medical Education Minister R.S. Chib of Congress.
This was followed by Gupta repeating the feat twice i.e. in 1998 and later in 1999. In all the three elections, Doda-Udhampur Lok Sabha seat saw 80.93 percent voting in 1996, 73.36 in 1998 and 81.88 percent in 1999. Congress which has to field its candidate from Doda-Udhampur stood second in 1996 and third in 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections. NC which has historically stood 3rd was second in both the elections held in the year 1998 and 1999.
These elections saw BJP getting 17 percent votes higher than Congress and thus, winning the seat comfortably. More importantly, vote share of NC-Congress which fought elections independently during these three elections and lost to BJP if added, the combine up still remain distant second. However, Congress romped home in 2004 and 2009, both these Lok Sabha elections saw voting percentage dipping to 45.09 percent in 2004 and 45.09 percent in 2009. The dip in voting percentage resulted in BJP losing to Congress in 2009 Lok Sabha by a narrow margin of 13, 994 votes even after it won 11 Assembly seats in 2008 Assembly elections. Despite having fought in alliance, the elections saw low voter turnout, resulting in Dr. Nirmal Singh of BJP losing the seat to Congress, Choudhary Lal Singh.
If these assessments are taken into account, ex-Chief Minister and Union Health and Family Welfare Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's reluctance is not without a reason. He seemingly does not want to spoil his political career which has not seen even one defeat since he joined Congress at the national level. Azad seems to have got convinced that acute polarisation would not give easy victory to Congress.
Besides, Azad has made no secret of his ambition of returning to state as PCC head as well as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir after the Assembly elections of 2014. This ambition too would suffer a rude shock if Azad chooses Lok Sabha over State Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir.
Constituency BJP Votes (2009) Congress (2009)
Kishtwar 11579 11920
Inderwal 6830 19163
Doda 9558 9948
Bhaderwah 19655 21712
Ramban 10694 10453
Banihal 2998 12924
Gulabgarh 3899 15348
Reasi 18330 12246
Gool-Arnas 3345 14911
Udhampur 16061 11786
Chenani 6620 8683
Ramnagar 5296 6058
Bani 8635 4428
Basholi 17448 16339
Kathua 27803 23634
Billawar 21884 15033
Hiranagar 27699 17217 |
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