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| Surrender before PDP may prove swan song for BJP | | |
For both the BJP and the PDP, the Gov-
ernment formation is not as easy as it
was when late Mufti Mohd. Sayeed forged an alliance with the BJP that resulted in the coalition Government formation. Mehbooba Mufti actually wants to ensure survival for the PDP which, according to her, is possible if she is able to secure some guarantee from the BJP led NDA Government on revoking AFSPA from at least two districts. If the centre concedes this demand she would be able to convince people in the Kashmir valley that what Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah could not secure she has been able to secure before taking over as Chief Minister. Even she would be considered taller than her father because late Mufti Mohd. Sayeed too could not succeed in getting AFSPA revoked from some areas in the state. If the BJP headed NDA Government conceded her another demand for reopening the channels of dialogue with the Kashmiri separatists it would further prove a feather in her cap. But the centre is not willing to reopen the channels of talks with the separatists. This is indicated by some of the events that have taken place during the last two years of BJP rule. In August last, New Delhi cancelled bilateral dialogue with Pakistan in protest against Pakistan High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, ignoring New Delhi's suggestion that he should not invite separatists for talks to Delhi. And during the last two years Modi is in no mood to hold parleys with separatists. In addition to this the Army top functionaries and those who man the paramilitary forces in Jammu and Kashmir oppose revocation of AFSPA even in phases and hence the centre is not prepared to ignore their suggestion.
Hence both sides have their limitations. But both sides are keen to form the Government. Yes, Mehbooba has a chance to enlarge the vote bank of the PDP if she does not form the Government in alliance with the BJP. She can go to the people and tell them that since the BJP did not accept her conditions she rejected the Chief Minister's offer and decided to serve people. However, inside reports indicate that both the BJP and the PDP are not willing to go in for fresh elections as neither the BJP nor the PDP can repeat the electoral performance of 2008 Assembly election. Whether the coalition Government is formed or not the BJP is likely to be mauled in the election in the Jammu region where people had elected 25 BJP candidates to the Assembly. Even the PDP may not be in a position to win 25 seats from the valley. Yes there is a difference between the BJP and the PDP. If the BJP is likely to be mauled by the Congress and the National Conference in the Jammu region the PDP may not get a drubbing in the valley.
This way both the BJP and the PDP have not given up their exercise on Government formation. The state unit of the BJP's howler was quite interesting. Its senior leaders said that they had not received any information from the PDP about its preconditions when the conditions laid down by the PDP were known to people in the streets of the state. The BJP has requested the Governor for more time and the PDP has, once again, opened its cards, on the formation of the Government. And the state has to remain under the Governor's rule till the BJP and the PDP work out a formula for formation of the coalition Government. For the BJP it is not an easy task to accept all the conditions put forth by Mehbooba Mufti because it knows that if it surrenders before Mehbooba that would act as a swan song for the BJP. Whether the Governor's rule gets extended depends on the final decision of the PDP and the BJP. But one thing is certain the two parties need to go in for give and take exercise to allow them to complete another five years of the Government. In fact if the two agree to form the Government and improve its performance by resolving various security related and economic issues the BJP and the PDP could improve their image which may not lead to any major erosion in their vote banks. The task is difficult but it is not impossible and the two should have an important role to play for fulfilling the expectations of people of the state who had voted for the PDP and the BJP. |
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