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| Will 1977 drama be enacted in Kashmir if Congress loses power in the Centre? | | | Early Times Report
JAMMU, May 10: Notwithstanding the fact that six Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir may not have any vital role to play in the Government formation in the Centre in case the ongoing Parliamentary elections threw up a hung Lok Sabha, the importance of the poll is, by no way, less significant for the state and its people.
On the basis of some assumptions if the Congress led UPA Government fails to retain power will it have any direct or indirect impact on the five and a half year old political arrangement in Jammu and Kashmir? Yes, the political situation in Jammu and Kashmir may witness some change. That is different if the state will be in for a change for better or worse.
The first impact, political observers see, is some relief to the National Conference leadership which may not have to dance to the tune of the Congress high command. No doubt Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, had almost sidelined the leaders of the state unit of the Congress, including some of the Congress Ministers, but had exhibited total loyalty to the Congress high command, particularly to the Vice-President, Rahul Gandhi, in whom he had seen a saviour.
If the Congress loses power in the Centre the party high command may have to think twice before dictating terms to the NC leadership with which the state unit of the Congress has been sharing power.
However, other set of political analysts are of the opinion that the NC leadership may not afford to treat the Congress shabbily because in case the Congress high command gets peeved over the casual attention from the NC the Congress could revive its ties with the PDP. If such a situation developed the Congress can form a coalition Government in alliance with the PDP.
But such a possibility seems to be bleak because not more than five months are left for the Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir. Since the PDP leadership is keen to win a majority of seats in the next Assembly election it may not be willing to invite trouble by joining hands with the Congress towards the fag end of the season.
This way chances for a repetition of 1977 drama seem to be bleak. In 1977 when the Congress led by Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, lost power its state unit decided to withdraw support to the Government headed by Sheikh Abdullah. In fact Sheikh Abdullah had been installed as Chief Minister with the support of the Congress in 1975 soon after the Sheikh-Indira Accord was finalized. However, the Congress idea of forming the Government on its own was scuttled when the then Governor, L.K. Jha, accepted the recommendation of Chief Minister, Sheikh Abdullah, and dissolved the Assembly placing the state under the Governor's rule. And when the Assembly election was held under the Governor's rule the National Conference, led by Sheikh Abdullah, won an absolute majority mauling both the Janata Party and the Congress.
Yes, the Congress can experiment with one option. It can snap ties with the NC which could leave no other choice for Omar Abdullah but to resign thereby forcing the Governor to place the state under his rule to be followed by the Assembly election. But this experiment may not prove fruitful for the Congress. The Congress can secure some electoral gains when being in power during the Assembly election.
As far as the NC leadership is concerned it may not commit a blunder by opting for early Assembly election even if it wins all the three Lok Sabha seats from the Kashmir valley, possibilities being remote. Knowing that the PDP continues to pose a severe challenge to the NC Farooq-Omar may not opt for snapping ties with the Congress.
Apart from the expected change in the political scenario in Jammu and Kashmir the Lok Sabha poll results may have immediate impact on the future of Farooq Abdullah and Ghulam Nabi Azad. If the two lose the election, Azad and Farooq may not lose only the face but power even if the Congress manages to sail through at the national level.
The poll results will also demonstrate whether the BJP is a sinking ship in the region of Jammu where it has contested the two seats or it has managed to upset the Congress applecart on the strength of a Modi wave. Besides this the vote share of the BJP candidates in Srinagar and Anantnag may reveal if Modi has been able to lay the foundation for the party in the Kashmir valley. |
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