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| PDP-BJP set to win 3 seats, independents to decide Azad's fate | | | Syed Junaid Hashmi
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Jan 28: PDP-BJP coalition which is likely to be announced in the days to come is all set to wrest three seats in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections while five independents would decide fate of ex-Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad.
On the last day of the nomination for the four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir, seven candidates filed nomination papers which included Mir Mohammed Fayaz and Nazir Ahmed Laway of PDP; Shamsher Singh, Chander Mohan Sharma of BJP and Sajjad Ahmed Kitchloo, Nasir Aslam Wani of National Conference (NC). Mir Mohammed Fayaz and Sajjad Ahmed Kitchloo filed nomination papers against the first notification.
Shamsher Singh and Nasir Aslam Wani handed over nomination papers for the second notification while for the third notification; papers were filed by Nazir Ahmed Laway of PDP, Chander Mohan Sharma of BJP and Ghulam Nabi Azad of Congress. Of these seven candidates, NC has fielded its provincial president and ex-Home minister for seats which they have no chance of winning while Ghulam Nabi Azad who is leader of opposition in the Rajya Sabha is contesting on the two seats for which one notification has been issued.
Hence, Nasir Aslam Wani, Sajjad Kitchloo and Ghulam Nabi Azad are consensual candidates of NC-Congress combine. The two parties came together after the UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi met NC President and ex-Chief Minister Omar Abdullah at New Delhi where Omar assured her of his party's support to the candidate put up by Congress. After this, General Secretary of NC Ali Mohammed Sagar made an announcement in Srinagar of supporting Ghulam Nabi Azad.
It is largely believed that Sonia has assured Omar of her party's support to NC during the upcoming elections for the legislative council in March. On the other side, BJP-PDP combine has put up four candidates namely Mir Mohammed Fayaz, Nazir Ahmed Laway, Shamsher Singh and Chander Mohan Sharma. A look at the numbers with the two combinations reveals that BJP-PDP combine should win three of the four seats without any serious competition from the NC-Congress combine.
PDP has 28 MLAs while BJP has 25. Hence, together they make up 53 and with Sajjad Lone's JKPC, the number reaches 55. For the first two seats, the PDP-BJP combine requires support of 44 MLAs, which they have. Hence, the first two seats should easily go into the kitty of BJP-PDP. According to analysts, for notification no 1; PDP candidate Mir Mohammed Fayaz will get around 55 votes. This includes two votes of Sajjad Lone's party. And if the rebel BJP candidate from Udhampur, who won as an independent returns to the partyfold, the number would go up to 56.
Though this is highly unlikely but then, with BJP's pride at stake, anything is possible with Pawan Gupta. For notification no 2, BJP candidate will get 55 votes and win the second seat. Both Kitchloo and Wani are set to lose elections for these two seats for which two notifications have been issued and that too with huge difference of votes. It seemingly appears that NC has fielded candidate just to gain political mileage. Interesting would be the contest on third notification.
According to the third notification, election is to be held for two seats. PDP has fielded Nazir Ahmed Laway, BJP has gone with Chander Mohan Sharma and Congress heavy weight Ghulam Nabi Azad is third in the contest. For both the seats, winner has to get 29 votes. PDP-BJP combine has 55 votes while NC-Congress combine has 27 votes and with 5 independents which includes BJP rebel Pawan Gupta, the figure goes upto 32.
If Pawan decides to vote for BJP, the combine alongwith 4 other independents would then have 30 votes. BJP-PDP combine will poll 55 votes and if Pawan votes for them, it would be 56. The first candidate Chander Mohan Sharma will be declared winner with 29 votes while Nazir Ahmed Laway would be left with 27 votes. This would give National Conference (NC)-Congress combination second seat of the third notification with 30 votes.
But if the four independents which includes Jammu and Kashmir People Democratic Front (JKPDF) leader Hakeem Mohammed Yasin, Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami of CPI (M), Independent from Zanskar Syed Mohammed Baqir Rizvi and MLA Langate Abdul Rashid Sheikh decide to abstain, result would be tie and winner would be declared by flip of coin. And if Hakeem Yasin and MLA Langate Abdul Rashid Sheikh come in support of PDP and the two others abstain, PDP candidate would win by two votes. This scenario is highly unlikely. Whatever happens on February 7, but ex-Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad would have to use his charisma also to win over four independents to ensure that his victory becomes a surety. Otherwise, BJP-PDP will win all the four seats. |
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