Assembly poll results in four states unlikely to impact BJP led NDA Govt

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Assembly poll results in four states unlikely to impact BJP led NDA Govt

3/6/2016 10:30:53 PM

Will the upcoming Assembly polls in four states and one union territory lead to any major change in the political arrangement in the centre ? Possibilities seem to be remote because elections in states,even if it is four states,does not alter the BJP led NDA Government's position or stabilityThe announcement of the Assembly poll schedule has set the stage for some of the more dramatic confrontations in Indian politics.For the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and the Trinamool Congress in Bengal, it will be a battle to protect hard-won turf against other regional forces (the DMK) or the likely coming-together of national parties like the Congress and the Left Front.According to Neelanjan Sircar, psephologist with the Centre for Policy Research, "The most obvious way of looking at the polls is through the prism of the ruling party at the Centre. The only State that the BJP has hopes of winning is Assam. If they do not win, they would have gone two years without a victory and it would create huge pressure to deliver in Uttar Pradesh in 2017."After losing Delhi and Bihar in the recent years the BJP led NDA Government has left Prime Minister,Narendra Modi and the BJP chief Amit Shah a bit worried.But if the BJP draws a blank from the states that go to the polls next month Modi's position and dignity and political vigour may get weakened. If BJP can find some relief it can be in the shape of Congress,whether in alliance with some regional party or on its own,is beaten hollow.However,by stitching a grand alliance in Bihar the Congress was able to redeem its position I and dignity which it had lost during the Lok Sabha election.One has to keep in mind the anti-incumbency pattern. In Tamil Nadu, will the alliance between the DMK, the Congress and possibly the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam be enough to maintain the pattern of alternation in government, or will the AIADMK break the pattern? In West Bengal, the point of interest will definitely be whether the likely understanding between the Congress and the Left will eat into Trinamool's votes. Pradeep Gupta, head of psephology firm Axis-Ad-Print Media, which correctly predicted the Bihar poll outcome last year, holds anti-incumbency to be the most important factor. For him the elections would simply be a decision on how far voters allow anti-incumbency to decide their preference."These elections may not significantly alter the political position of the national parties but alliances will be important experiments for the future. When the BJP lost the Bihar poll Modi's status was affected after the BJP had lost Delhi.Critics of the BJP in general and that of Modi in particular,especially the Congress leaders,including Rahul Gandhi,did not spare a moment for berating Modi's style of governance and functioning.Rahul was encouraged on dubbing Modi as "Boot Suit ki sarkar." Well during the last over one year Modi's foreign policies and his approach for winning the support and goodwill of several countries,including super powers,small neighbouring countries and above all China and Pakistan.It is something different if Islamabad failed to respond to the friendly gestures from Modi.But he has been instrumental in enlarging the base of foreign investment in India which has started helping him in making his pet project "Make in India" a success.However,these policies may not win the support of voters in the four states because they do not attach as much important to the quantum of foreign investment in India as to the resolution of problem of unemployment and poverty.Here Modi is to take quite hard decisions withi n next one fortnight to woo the voters in the four states.Let the BJP make a beginning in Tamil Nadu,West Bengal,Kerala and Puducherry as the BJP has a very limited base in these states. It may win the Assam poll that too on the ruins of the Congress.Yes,the BJP could make inroads in the electoral politics of Kerala ,West Bengal and Tamil Nadu if it is able to forge an alliance with some regional parties which is not possible as far as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are concerned where the TMC and AIADMK DMK may not want to earn displeasure of voters.Hence Modi has to reinvent his charisma and woo voters to allow the BJP to gain some foothold in these states.

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