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| PDP fears 'internal rebellion' over alliance, NC excited! | | Sajad Lone, BJP, Speaker taking center stage | |
Hyder Ali
Early Times Report
Srinagar, Mar 20: With the chances of Peoples Democratic Party-Bharatiya Janta Party government formation turning bleak, following a clear-cut no from BJP to any new conditions from the PDP, the latter fears "internal rebellion", which may cause spilt within the party ranks to pave way for coalition.
The rumors are flying thick and fast here that a group of around 12 PDP MLAs are ready to oppose the party decision of having "stretched so long the government formation" and may directly extend support to BJP for the government formation. But this "rebel" group is trying to "convert three more" to get a total of 15.
The "rebel MLAs", as per the sources, are likely to claim before the BJP leadership in New Delhi that "we are the true representatives of PDP and the rightwing party should go ahead with alliance with them."
While PDP stalwarts like Member Parliament Tariq Hameed Karra, who would otherwise oppose alliance with the BJP, have been conspicuous for their silence, some of the MLAs from the prospective "rebel group" believe that government formation was unduly delayed.
The "rebels" have made a plea that after the demise of then Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed on January 7, there was "no need to reconsider decision to continue alliance with the BJP when Mufti Sahib was satisfied with the implementation of the Agenda of Alliance."
The same holds true for some of the BJP leaders, who fear that their party would be doomed, if the leadership fails to arrive at consensus over government formation. The general perception among the people in the winter capital has been that the BJP miserably failed to come up to their expectations.
"If the ten months of the coalition government is a yardstick, BJP has been a total failure in the Jammu region and to correct these wrongdoings, the party needs to continue the alliance and prove the cynics wrong. Otherwise BJP is a gone case," said a BJP insider.
He said with this is mind some of the BJP leaders have opposed the toughened stand of the party leadership in the national capital. "Such MLAs have persuaded the BJP to arrive at consensus with the PDP than to severe the ties, which will ultimately tell upon their party performance in any new elections," the insiders said.
While the PDP is tight-lipped over the reports of "rebellion", the rival National Conference has created flutters through its posts on the social media.
NC leader and party spokesman Junaid Azim Mattu was among the first to formally "open the lid" over the "rebellion" in the rival ranks. "Thick rumour in media circles about a big group of PDP MLAs led by a senior leader leaving for Delhi on Tuesday. Last ditch effort? Faction?" Mattu tweeted.
This was followed by a post by his party colleague Tanvir Sadiq, who this afternoon added more spice to the story. While retweeting Mattu's post, Sadiq added: "They say, a former cabinet minister of @jkpdp wants to stake a claim fr the top post, after MM was snubbed & sent back."
Observers said Tanvir made a direct attack on the PDP by making mention of its twitter-handler in the post. "It is a psychological war… NC has deliberately penetrated into the rival twitter handle," said a political analyst, tracking the war-of-words between PDP and the NC.
If the BJP agrees to "rebel voices" to forge alliance, the question is how many MLAs from the "rebel group will PDP comprise of" to attain the magic figure of 44.
While BJP has 25 seats, how many from the PDP's pool of 28 seats will form the "rebel group." If the group comprises of 15, the coalition will be short of four more seats.
This is where Peoples Conference Chairman Sajad Gani Lone takes the center-stage in the number game. Though Peoples Conference has mere two seats, Sajad is understood to be having good relations with the three seats of independents and one held by the Peoples Democratic Front. "If Sajad manages even two out of these four seats, it's going to be cakewalk towards the government formation," said a political analyst.
But the million dollar question is about the anti-defection act on how the "rebels" will be treated?
While defections are common in other states, especially when there is no clear majority for any party, in Jammu and Kashmir, it is not an option for parties to increase its strength.
Legal luminaries said Jammu and Kashmir has its own anti-defection law, different from the national law, that prevents the elected representatives from defying their party whip.
According to the anti-defection law effective in the rest of the country, if less than one-third of the total elected representatives of a party defect or defy party whip at a time, they are disqualified. But the state law is more stringent.
The 13th amendment to the constitution of Jammu and Kashmir was enacted in 2006, during the tenure of Ghulam Nabi Azad as Chief Minister, that omitted the provision of split in legislature parties.
The anti-defection law was invoked by BJP in the Assembly when it moved an application before the Speaker, seeking disqualification of its seven MLAs for voting against their party candidate in elections to the Legislative Council in April 2011.
But the chair of Speaker is where the things can throw up surprises. "It is for the Speaker to accept application seeking disqualification and this is where BJP can have an upper hand because the chair is held by the rightwing party," explained a political strategist.
On March 18, the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) refused to accept any new demand from the PDP, adding that it was not possible to form a Government in Jammu and Kashmir based on conditions.
While things had been apparently going on smoothly and the PDP President Mehbooba Mufti had called on the BJP President Amit Shah on March 17, the things seem to have run into rough weather overnight.
The BJP senior leader and party point man on Kashmir Ram Madhav said: "We are not ready to accept any new demand. Whatever expectations are there, would be possibly fulfilled only after formation of a Government." |
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