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| Six-cornered contests in Jammu province | | Expected high polling | | Rustam
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Nov 6: The scheduled assembly elections in the state are becoming interesting by the day. It is expected that the mobilization this time would on an unprecedented scale and since mobilization would be on unprecedented scale, the voting percentage could also be the highest, especially in Jammu province, where the people even otherwise vote in large numbers. The campaign this time would be intense. There should be no doubt about it.
There are six players in the election fray - the NC and its estranged ally Congress, BJP, PDP, BSP and the NPP. The last two were, and will be, marginal players and they would impact the poll prospects of the NC, Congress and the PDP whose vote-bank is the same. The BJP has its own vote-bank and it generally remains intact. Of the four major players, which would leave no stone unturned to win over the electorate in Jammu province, the NC and the Congress do not really appear on the scene. The NC and the Congress are, according to serious political pundits, fighting a losing battle, as their constituencies have shrunk considerably and their leaders are a demoralized lot. The position of the Congress appears worse, as compared with the NC in one respect. There are many senior leaders in the Congress as well as Congress ministers in Jammu who want to quit their organization and join the BJP, but their problem is that they are unacceptable to the BJP. These Congress leaders and ministers have come to believe, and rightly, that the prevailing political situation in Jammu province is not favouring them.
Convinced that they have little or no chance in at least 24 out of 37 assembly constituencies in Jammu province, the leadership of the NC and Congress is focusing their attention in those 13 constituencies where the Muslim voters are somewhat numerous. But, again, their problem is that the PDP is also very much there in those 13 constituencies to upset the applecart of the NC and the Congress. The PDP has been mobilizing public opinion in these constituencies for months now and there are potent reasons to believe that the PDP would occupy some space the NC and the Congress has lost over the period for obvious reasons.
The political situation as it prevails today across Jammu province is such that any party which would get around 30 per cent of the total popular votes polled would win 26 to 30 seats. And if at all it happens, the party with 26 to 30 seats would be either king or kingmaker. |
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