news details |
|
|
| WEIRD WEATHER: Could it be Global Warming? | | | Dr. Pragya Khanna
A North Pole with 40°F (4°C) temperatures, extreme flooding across the globe and record storms all contributed to making 2015 a year of weird weather. After two factors that contributed to a record warm 2015, El Niño and a strong Arctic Oscillation, the American Scientists are predicting another year of record heat and some more bizarre weather events world over.
Only recently after meeting in the Paris UN Climate Conference, the participating countries have begun to implement plans to slow their greenhouse gas emissions and, in turn, slow global warming in recognition of those impacts. But greenhouse gases already in the air will likely continue to cause weird weather for years and decades to come. In other words, the weird weather is here to stay.
The first half of 2015 has featured some truly strange weather. Last year was Australia's hottest on record with temperatures 1.2 degrees above the average, a year in which Australia's Bureau of Meteorology had to add a new colour to its maps to represent new extremes in heat. Argentina has also witnessed one of the worst heat waves on record at the end of December, according to the WMO. Last year and in 2014 the UK has been battered by one storm after another since the start of December, with a series of storms tracking in off the Atlantic bringing strong winds and heavy rain.
The recent IPCC AR 5 report concluded that the climate is changing and there is a 95% certainty that it is caused by our actions, specifically the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and land use change. But according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), "No single weather episode can prove or disprove global climate change." Right, and of course many complicated and interrelated variables are in play, of which climate change or global warming might only be one factor.
It has now been ascertained that no weather event has a unique cause. Every weather event, this one included, has multiple factors that conspire to make it what it is.
In addition to human-induced climate change, the big El Niño currently in place is very likely a significant factor in the present eastern warmth, because of the way it pushes the jet stream around. That's why a warm December was predicted well ahead of time (though not to the extreme that has happened). Like this year, as most of us would agree, that though the calendar was saying winter till mid December, but trees were seen blooming, insects were buzzing and allergies making a comeback every now and then.
The freakishly warm December that's set thousands of record temperatures around globe has also been confusing trees, plants, flowers and bugs and could have thrown spring out of whack, too. "Not only could the warm weather create the problem of early budding and blooming, but in addition, fruit trees need a certain number of hours of chilling for best fruiting, which they may not get if the warm weather continues," said a horticulturist at SKUAST. "If the trees don't get enough time in the cold, spring blooming can be delayed or get erratic and the quality of the fruit may suffer. Bulbs like those for tulips and daffodils also need a bit of a chill in order to blossom well later on. Any flowers blooming now because of the warm weather may not bloom at all in the spring", he added.
Also, it is quite understandable that a quick, dramatic temperature drop in January or February would also be problematic, leading to damage to trees and plants suddenly unprepared for the cold. Once the buds reach a certain stage of growth, if they are exposed to a hard freeze they might show problems opening up.
If the weather remains warmer than average, there will be no winter kill of the insects that damage plants by eating them, laying eggs in them or spreading diseases to them.
Allergies are also rebounding with the winter warmth. Dr. Pinkus Goldberg has seen more asthmatic patients recently at his Indiana practice and attributes the rise to a weather-induced increase in mold growth and dust mites, the region's most common allergen. "Dust mites need moisture out of the air to thrive," he said. "Cold air can't hold as much moisture, and when it gets bitterly cold, insects like dust mites die."
Our Country's Capital Delhi experienced its warmest December in four years in 2015. It was also the driest, with not even one chill-inducing rainy day. December saw the least number of dense foggy days in at least five years, leading to fewer flight and train disruptions.
Notably, this is in sync with the global El Niño phenomenon, which has caused Montreal in Canada to see a record 16° Celsius-warm Christmas this time. This made the 'winter wonderland' comparable with Kuwait in the Gulf at 13° Celsius.
The North Pole, for the first time in human history, saw temperatures above zero that caused puddles in its ice-sheets. Meanwhile London has 'spring-time' daffodils in bloom already, leaving the English worried. El Niño, in weather parlance, refers to the Pacific Ocean warming up, spiking the mercury in the USA and Canada. It is believed to be so strong this time that it is affecting the entire globe.
In Delhi, weather experts blamed the balmy winter on both "world, regional and local reasons".
In words of BP Yadav, Director, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), "We have been analysing our daily data and have already established that September, October and November 2015 were the warmest in India till date. Among the regional causes is a missing Western Disturbance (WD)". WD is the extra-tropical storm which develops over the Mediterranean Sea and brings moisture-laden winds to northwest India. It leads to snowfall in the Himalayas and rainfall in Delhi. Rains play a key role in intensifying winters.
Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd attributes it to "an anti-cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan which is bringing dry winds" from the desert area. Delhi normally witnesses 9.4 mm of rain during December. But it has only seen traces so far.
Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said: "2015 has been declared to be the hottest yet, but then, every year is proving to be warmer than the previous one. Since 1850, when the Industrial Revolution began, the Earth's temperature has gone up by 1 degree Celsius. In India, we are seeing strange weather phenomenon. Last year, rains in April destroyed crops in Telangana. The warm winter will badly affect wheat output," he said, adding that the health effects of this were not well studied yet, but surely could not be good.
Where's the fog? - This is what most of us were shouting till the mid of the December this year. Fog in Delhi and North India which begins from November itself, was nowhere to be seen till the mid of December this year. And the first thick fog occurrence (only for a short duration) was only towards January 2016.
Even in the magnificent Kashmir which is famous for its snowy scenery received no snow in the thick of winter. Weathermen, scientists, travellers and locals, were all worried as there was no snow till December. This happened due to less number of Western Disturbances.
In 2014 while the entire country was witnessing cold winter weather, it felt like a second summer along the west coast in South India, in the peak winter month of January.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that "rainfall patterns in peninsular India will become more and more erratic, with a possible decrease in overall rainfall, but an increase in extreme weather events". Indian climatologists agree.
According to scientists, extreme rainfall events will increase as global warming proceeds unabated, and hence it is absolutely essential for us to be prepared to tackle more extreme rainfall events in the future.
Therefore, there is strong reason to prepare ourselves to face the potential disasters associated with increasing frequency and intensity of these events.
With temperatures above freezing at the North Pole, deadly tornadoes in Texas, extreme heat in Australia and floods in Britain and Missouri, the world is beset by extreme weather events as it welcomes 2016.
But just saying that every possible cause matters to an extreme weather event isn't very satisfying. Which cause matters the most, by how much and in what sense? Can we measure these various influences on the weather with numbers? And the most important! Are we prepared to tackle these weird weather incidences which may come without warning?
The bottom line is, on a global level, we really are in an exceptional year as it is just over a tenth of a degree warmer than 2014, which itself was a record year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
STOCK UPDATE |
|
|
 |
| BSE
Sensex |
 |
| NSE
Nifty |
|
|
| |
CRICKET UPDATE |
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
